In NOLA, It's Nagin Vs. Landrieu

Despite Mayor Ray Nagin's boast that New Orleans voters "shocked the world," the only real surprise is that Nagin finished first, not second, to Lt. Gov. Mitch Landrieu in Saturday's Crescent City election.

The mayor finished the night with 38 percent of the vote compared to Landrieu's 29 percent. Ron Forman, who must have known his campaign was over when the Times-Picayune endorsed him, squandered tons of cash and business-backing to miss the runoff with 17 percent. Rob Couhig cut into Forman's base, finished fourth with 10 percent and was the only other Nagin challenger to gain more than 2 percent.

BaT previously predicted a Landrieu-Forman runoff, before the whole city learned Forman apparently can't speak in public. His debate performance was described as "lackluster," and Couhig -- a trial lawyer -- did well. Instead, Nagin and Landrieu, the son of former Mayor Moon Landrieu and the brother of U.S. Sen. Mary Landrieu, will meet in the May 20 runoff.

Nagin, with the power of the incumbency, should have been able to pull in a decent percentage in such a crowded field -- 22 people where on the ballot, including a few well-known people and a bunch of morons. (I'll leave it to you to decide where Nagin and Landrieu fit in. If you want my opinion, you can see previous BaT posts on Nagin here and here and on Landrieu here.)

But as any political consultant will tell you, an incumbent who gains less than 42 percent in a primary election (which is what this really was), he will lose most of the time. As the incumbent, Nagin may have scored 38 percent of the vote -- but 62 percent of the people were against him. And the mayor sealed up most of the black vote, which means white voters -- those who voted for change with Forman and Couhig -- will swing the runoff results.

Advantage: Landrieu.

Supposedly. But I believe you'll see Nagin run back toward the center and try to remind Forman and Couhig voters of his pro-business reputation pre-Katrina. Landrieu will remind them Nagin's post-Katrina reputation, complete with photos of flooded school buses and Chocolate City theme music.

I'm glad I don't live in New Orleans. I can't decide which is worse: Four more years of Ray Nagin or any Landrieu.